The H2-diplo – Decarbonisation Diplomacy project, implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of the German Federal Foreign Office, has released a Ukrainian-language version of the study “Green Ammonia and Fertilizer Value Chain in Ukraine: A Preliminary Assessment,” whose findings were first presented in December 2025. This is the first in-depth work to analyze the potential for green ammonia and fertilizer development in the Ukrainian context.
Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine produced up to 5 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers annually, drawing on strong ammonia capacity and a well-developed agricultural sector. Today the industry has suffered severe damage — as of 2025, only two of six plants remain operational, and dependence on imported nitrogen fertilizers has exceeded 60%. Meanwhile, conventional fertilizer production accounted for a significant share of industrial gas consumption and CO₂ emissions, underscoring the need for structural change.
The study finds that the green ammonia and fertilizer value chain holds considerable medium- and long-term potential for Ukraine’s green economic recovery, food security, and integration into European low-carbon markets. Among Ukraine’s key advantages are one of the largest renewable energy potentials in Europe, existing ammonia infrastructure and storage, and geographic proximity to EU demand centers.
Green ammonia currently costs roughly two to three times more than grey ammonia. However, price parity by the mid-2030s is realistic — provided carbon prices rise and concessional financing becomes accessible. Falling renewable electricity costs in Ukraine, rising EU carbon prices, and the prospect of EU accession are all progressively strengthening the country’s competitiveness.
On the use of green fertilizers, the study cautions that broad and immediate adoption risks reducing overall grain yields. Instead, phased and targeted application — where a genuine low-carbon premium exists — can improve farmer margins and reduce emissions along the agricultural value chain.
Key recommendations prioritize not mega-projects but enabling conditions: robust techno-economic analysis, clear benchmarks, and access to cheaper capital. Investment in skills and alignment with EU rules — including definitions, carbon pricing, and MRV frameworks — will help green ammonia and fertilizers serve domestic demand and access new low-carbon markets. With a “domestic market first” approach, Ukraine can transition from import dependence to a sustainable domestic green fertilizer market, strengthening food and energy security, while exports become an additional rather than dominant opportunity.
H2-diplo supports the German federal government’s energy and climate foreign policy, working together with partner countries on ways of using green hydrogen to decarbonise and diversify their economies. H2-diplo is implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of the Federal Foreign Office and is financed by the International Climate Initiative (Internationale Klimaschutzinitiative, IKI).
You can download the study in English here:
You can download the study in Ukrainian here:
